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从最优消费选择推演中国消费升级路径

2018-10-24 09:27:32    第一财经  参与评论()人

“源浚者流长,根深者叶茂。”8月份社会消费品零售增速从历史低值小幅回升,进一步加剧了“消费升级VS消费降级”之争。围绕这一讨论,当前较多的研究采用“由表及里”的思考方式,进而陷入消费现象的种种迷思。跳出这一窠臼,本文沿循“由里及外”的研究方式,首先构建中国消费格局的分析框架。在这一框架下,供给侧生产边界曲线与居民预期收入曲线的唯一切点,即为最优消费选择,代表了消费总福利。消费升级的本质,正是这一消费总福利的增加。因此,评判消费升级的关键,不在于消费篮子中的具体组合,而在于两大曲线的变动能否为消费者提供更充裕的选择空间,进而导向更高的总福利。有鉴于此,在前瞻中国消费格局之时,无需先验地假设消费升级的模板,而是可以通过研究两条曲线的长期变化,穿透消费迷思,进而推演出消费升级的机制和路径。

从最优消费选择推演中国消费升级路径

两条曲线刻画中国消费格局

我们将中国纷繁的消费现象进行抽象化,纳入一个坐标系中,以消费者的总福利(U)为纵轴,商品和服务的一般价格水平(P)为横轴。以此为基础,可以通过以下两条曲线,来刻画中国消费格局。

第一是供给侧的生产边界曲线。供给侧向消费者提供商品和服务的能力,可以表示为一系列向内侧凸出的曲线(S1、S2…Sn)。

从静态来看,生产边界曲线的形状反映了中国制造业和服务业的高端化发展进程。其中,n的数值越大,代表该条生产边界所能提供的商品和服务的品质越好。这一属性体现于两个方面。其一,随着n的扩大,曲线所对应的福利和价格同时提升,表明供给走向高端化。其二,随着n的扩大,曲线愈加平坦,表明降低一单位价格对消费者带来的边际福利逐渐衰减,因此“价格战策略”效力渐失,倒逼供给侧淘汰过剩旧产能,将重心转向生产高新产品。

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